49회 유럽 방문을 통해 본 트럼프의 세계전략 (1)

49회 유럽 방문을 통해 본 트럼프의 세계전략 (1)

 

 

 

 

유럽 방문을 통해 본 트럼프의 세계전략 (1)

Trump's Grand Strategy in Transforming Global Politics

 

 

 

이춘근

Lee Choon Kun

 

 

 

49회 유럽 방문을 통해 본 트럼프의 세계전략 (1)

 

 

 

  2018. 7. 11 NATO Summit Brussels 2018, NATO Headquarters, Brussels, Belgium  

 

 

 

                              Theresa May (1956~)

                               영국의 제57대 총리

 

2018. 7. 13 at Chequers, in Buckinghamshire, England

 

 

 

       Donald John Trump (1946~)                           Влади́мир Влади́мирович Пу́тин (1952~)

               제 45대 美 대통령                                            러시아 제3 · 4 · 6 · 7대 대통령

 

2018. 7. 16(현지시간) 핀란드 헬싱키에서 첫 공식회담

 

 

 

 

북대서양 조약 기구 NATO

North Atlantic Treaty Organization

 

국제 군사 기구로 1949년 4월 4일 체결된 북대서양 조약에 의해 창설.

이 기구는 회원국이 어떤 비가입국의 공격에 대응하여 상호 방어하는 것을 인정했기 때문에 집단 방어 체계로 운영.

 

 

 

NATO 회원국 (녹색 표시된 국가들) - 결성일 : 1949년 4월 4일 - 유형 : 군사동맹 - 본부 : 벨기에 브뤼셀 - 위치 : 유럽 및 아메리카 - 활동지역 : 유럽, 아메리카, 아프가니스탄, 인도양 - 회원 : 29개국

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                       Theresa May (1956~)

                                                                      영국의 제57대 총리

 

2018. 7. 12 at Blenheim Palace, Oxfordshire

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                                                      엘리자베스 2세

                                                                                     (Elizabeth Alexandra Mary) (1926~)

                                                                                  그레이트브리튼 북아일랜드 연합왕국 여왕

 

2018. 7. 13 영국 윈저성

 

 

 

               Donald John Trump (1946~)                                     Vladimir Putin

                   제45대 美 대통령                               Влади́мир Влади́мирович Пу́тин (1952~)

                                                                                 러시아 제3 · 4 · 6 · 7대 대통령

 

2018. 7. 16(현지시간) 핀란드 헬싱키에서 첫 공식회담

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WORLD

Trump Roils NATO Allies With Calls to Double Military Spending

 

U.S. leader urges allies to double target to 4% while questioning the alliance’s value and bashing Germany for its support of a Russia gas deal

 

 

The NATO summit in Brussels will take place amid tense relationships within the alliance. The Wall Street Journal's Gerald F. Seib looks at what to expect. Photo: Getty

 

By Rebecca Ballhaus , Valentina Pop and Laurence Norman

Updated July 11, 2018 6:50 pm ET

 

 

 

BRUSSELS—President Donald Trump pressed allies to double their military spending target to 4% of GDP, while questioning NATO’s value and bashing Germany for supporting a gas deal with Russia.

After attacking North Atlantic Treaty Organization leaders for months for not meeting a 2% spending target, Mr. Trump said on Wednesday that amount was too low.

 

 

WSJ 2018. 7. 11

 

 

 

                  Angela Dorothea Merkel (1954~)                      Donald John Trump (1946~)

                          독일의 제8대 연방수상                                      제45대 美 대통령

 

2018. 7. 11 at NATO headquarters in Brussels

 

 

 

  NATO 회원국 (29개국)  

 

 

 

THE REAL RUSSIA COLLUSION

 

 

 

 

 

collusion  [kəlúːʒən] ; 공모, 결탁, 통모

 

 

 

(2016)                                                                 

대한민국 GDP 대비 국방비 지출 2.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brexit (브렉시트)

영국이 유럽 연합(EU)을 탈퇴한다는 의미로, 영국이 범국민적으로 추진하여 정치적 목표를 이룬 사건이다.

'브렉시트'(Brexit)는 영국(Britain)과 탈퇴(exit)를 합쳐서 만든 혼성어이다.

2016년 6월 열린 영국 국민투표 개표 결과 72.2%의 투표율에

51.9%의 찬성(17,410,742표), 반대 48.1%(16,141,241표) 기권(26,033표)로 영국의 유럽 연합 탈퇴가 확정되었다.

 

 

 

 

London, England, July 13, 2018

 

 

 

London, England, July 13, 2018

 

 

 

London, England, July 14, 2018

 

 

 

London, England, July 14, 2018

 

 

 

                  Vladimir Putin                                           John Robert Bolton (1948~)

Влади́мир Влади́мирович Пу́тин (1952~)                        美 제27대 국가안보보좌관

           러시아 제3 · 4 · 6 · 7대 대통령

 

 

 

 

 

미 특검, 미-러 정상 회담 앞두고 러시아군 정보요원 12명 무더기 기소

 

 

미국

2018. 7. 14

 

 

 

로드 로즌스타인 미 법무부 부장관이 러시아군 정보요원 12명 기소를 발표하고 있다.

 

 

 

미국의 로버트 뮬러 특별검사가 13일, '러시아 스캔들'과 관련해 러시아군 정보요원 12명을 무더기로 기소했습니다.

이들은 러시아 정보기관인 '총정찰국(GRU)' 소속으로 지난 2016년 미국 대선 과정에서 민주당의 힐러리 클린턴 후보 캠프와 민주당 전국위원회(DNC) 등의 전산망을 해킹하고 정보를 유출했으며, 자금 세탁 등의 혐의를 받고 있습니다.

로드 로즌스타인 법무부 부장관은 이날(13일) 기자회견에서 미국을 혼란에 빠뜨리고 분열시키며 이견을 부각하려는 시도라고 말했습니다.

로즌스타인 부장관은 그러나, 러시아의 해킹이 미국 대선 결과에 직접적인 영향을 미쳤을 가능성과 관련해, 그같은 혐의는 없다고 말했습니다.

이번 기소는 도널드 트럼프 미국 대통령과 블라디미르 푸틴 러시아 대통령과의 16일 첫 단독회담을 앞두고 나왔습니다.

미국 민주당은 이와 관련 미-러 정상회담을 취소해야 한다고 압박하고 있습니다.

그러나 백악관은 뮬러 특검의 추가 기소에서 트럼프 캠프의 연루 의혹은 거론되지 않았다며, 러시아 해킹이 대선 결과에 영향을 미치지 않았다고 반박했습니다.

한편 러시아 외무부는 이번 기소가 미-러 정상회담의 분위기를 해치기 위한 것이라고 비난했습니다.

VOA 뉴스

 

 

기자) 러시아 스캔들을 조사 중인 로버트 뮬러 특별검사가 지난 2016년 미국 대통령 선거에 개입한 혐의로 러시아인 12명을 기소했습니다

진행자) 뮬러 특검이 다시 러시아인들을 대거 기소했다는 소식이군요?

기자) 네. 로드 로젠스타인 연방 법무부 부장관은 13일 기자회견을 열고 지난 2016년 미국 대통령 선거에 개입한 러시아인 12명을 뮬러 특검이 기소했다고 발표했습니다.

[녹취: 로젠스타인 부장관] “The indictment charges twelve Russian military officers…”

기자) 대선에 개입한 러시아군 장교 12명을 기소해달라고 뮬러 특검이 워싱턴 D.C. 연방 대배심에 요청했고, 연방 대배심이 이를 승인했다고 로젠스타인 부장관은 밝혔습니다. 이들은 선거 관계자나 관련 기관 전산망을 해킹해 정보를 훔치고 이 정보를 외부에 유출한 혐의를 받고 있습니다. 참고로 해킹이란 남의 전산망에 침입해 정보를 빼내거나 침입한 전산망을 망가뜨리는 행위를 뜻합니다.

진행자) 기소된 사람들이 모두 군인이라고 했나요?

기자) 그렇습니다. 로젠스타인 부장관은 이들이 모두 러시아군 정보기관인 GRU 소속이라고 설명했습니다.

[녹취: 로젠스타인 부장관] “The defendants worked for two units…”

기자) 기소된 러시아 군인들은 민주당 의회선거운동위원회, 민주당 전국위원회(DNC), 힐러리 클린턴 민주당 대선 후보 선거사무소뿐만 아니라 주 선거관리위원회, 국무부 장관, 선거 관리 프로그램 제작 회사 전산망도 해킹한 것으로 드러났습니다. 이들은 ‘피싱 이메일’, 즉 미끼로 던진 이메일을 통해 목표로 삼은 조직에서 일하는 사람들의 전산망에 들어가거나, 해킹한 전산망에 악성 프로그램을 심어서 자료를 훔친 것으로 드러났습니다.

진행자) 해킹 대상이 광범위하네요?

기자) 그렇습니다. 이들은 두 집단으로 나누어서 일을 진행했는데요. 해킹으로 정보를 훔쳐오는 조직, 그리고 훔친 정보를 퍼뜨리는 조직으로 나뉘어서 활동했습니다.

진행자) 미국 대선에 개입하려고 정보를 훔친 것에서 그치지 않고 이걸 퍼뜨리는 작업까지 했군요?

기자) 네. 피고인들은 인터넷에서 ‘디시리크스(DCLeaks)’나 ‘구시퍼 2.0(Guccifer 2.0)’이란 이름으로 훔친 자료나 정보를 대량으로 유포했습니다. 피고인들은 또 신원을 숨기려고 신원을 위조하거나 전 세계에 흩어져 있는 전산망을 썼고, 돈을 지불할 때 암호화폐를 썼다고 로젠스타인 부장관은 밝혔습니다.

진행자) 이 작업에 연루된 미국 시민이 있습니까?

기자) 없습니다. 로젠스타인 부장관은 또 러시아 선거 개입이 2016년 대선 결과에 영향을 미치지도 않았다고 설명했습니다. 한편 로젠스타인 부장관은 이번 기소 내용을 트럼프 대통령에게 이미 보고했다고 밝혔습니다.

진행자) 뮬러 특검은 이미 몇몇 러시아인을 기소한 것으로 기억하는데요?

기자) 네. 인터넷 사회연결망 서비스(SNS)에서 신분을 속이고 미국 대선에 개입한 혐의로 이미 러시아인 13명과 러시아 회사 3곳을 기소한 바 있습니다. 이번에 12명이 추가로 기소되면서 뮬러 특검이 기소한 사람들 가운데 러시아인이 25명이 됐습니다.

진행자) 기소된 사람들이 처벌받을 가능성은 있는 겁니까?

기자) 짐작하시겠지만, 현실적으로 러시아 안에 있는 피고인들을 처벌하기는 불가능합니다. 그래서 이번 기소는 범죄 사실을 확인하고 용의자들을 공개했다는 상징적인 의미가 있다고 보면 되겠습니다.

진행자) 백악관 측은 이번 러시아인 기소와 관련해 어떤 반응을 보였습니까?

기자) 백악관은 이날(13일) 성명에서 트럼프 선거캠프 인사들 가운데 기소된 사람이 없다는 점을 강조했습니다. 트럼프 대통령의 개인 변호인인 루돌프 줄리아니 전 뉴욕 시장 역시 미국인은 아무도 연루되지 않았다면서, 이제 뮬러 특검이 수사를 마무리할 때가 됐다고 말했습니다.

진행자) 민주당 쪽 반응도 전해주시죠.

기자) 네, 오는 16일, 핀란드 헬싱키에서 열릴 예정인 미국과 러시아 간 정상회담을 취소해야 한다고 촉구하고 있습니다. 척 슈머 상원 민주당 대표는 이런 상황에서 트럼프 대통령이 블라디미르 푸틴 러시아 대통령을 만나는 건 "미국 민주주의에 대한 모독"이라고 말했고요, 마크 워너 상원 정보위원회 민주당 간사는 러시아가 미국 대선에 관여했다는 직접적인 증거가 나왔다며, 트럼프 대통령과 푸틴 대통령이 배석자 없이 단독으로 만나는 일은 없어야 한다고 주장했습니다.

 

2018. 7. 14 VOA

 

 

 

 

 

 

슈피겔, 미 정보당국 10년간 독일 총리 감청

 

유럽

2013. 10. 28

 

 

 

9월 7일 독일 베를린에서 인터넷 감시에 반대하는 시위자가 현수막을 들고 있다.

 

 

 

미 정보당국이 10년 넘게 앙겔라 메르켈 독일 총리의 전화를 감청했을 수 있다고 독일 주간지 슈피겔이 보도했습니다.

슈피겔은 메르켈 총리 사무실을 인용해 바락 오바마 대통령이 지난 23일 통화에서 메르켈 총리에게 사과했다고 전했습니다.

메르켈 총리 대변인과 백악관은 논평을 거절했습니다.

독일은 몇 일내로 워싱턴에 정보기관 관계자들을 파견해 해명을 요구할 예정입니다.

미 국가안보국 NSA 전 직원인 에드워느 스노든이 유출한 기밀문서에 따르면, 미국 정부가 일반 미국인들과 세계 지도자들에 대해 그들의 인터넷 검색 기록과 전화 기록을 감시한 것으로 알려졌습니다. (끝)

VOA 뉴스

 

2013. 10. 28 VOA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Fix ● Analysis

Even Paul Ryan went out of his way to criticize Trump on Russia

 

By Amber Phillips

Staff writer

 

 

July 16, 2018

 

 

 

It’s a safe assumption that one of House Speaker Paul D. Ryan’s least favorite parts of his job is to have to contradict President Trump.

Ryan (R-Wis.) has maintained he will speak out when he disagrees with Trump, but he also frequently goes out of his way to avoid those conflicts, such as claiming he hasn’t seen Trump’s latest controversial tweet. Ryan’s strategy makes sense; Trump is the person who signed Republicans’ tax bill into law in December, after all.

So it’s notable that Ryan went out of his way to criticize Trump's performance in Helsinki on Monday alongside Russian President Vladimir Putin. Within hours of that stunning news conference, where Trump wouldn’t say he believes U.S. intelligence chiefs over Putin about Russian interference in the 2016 election, Ryan was out with this statement:

 

There is no question that Russia interfered in our election and continues attempts to undermine democracy here and around the world. That is not just the finding of the American intelligence community but also the House Committee on Intelligence. The president must appreciate that Russia is not our ally. There is no moral equivalence between the United States and Russia, which remains hostile to our most basic values and ideals. The United States must be focused on holding Russia accountable and putting an end to its vile attacks on democracy.

 

 

In short: Ryan thinks Trump got it wrong on Russia. Very wrong. Trump was too lenient on Putin, and too quick to equivocate on Russia’s hacking of Democrats and targeted social media advertising.

This isn’t the first time Ryan has contradicted Trump on Russia. Ryan has consistently maintained that Russia meddled in the U.S. election and that protections should be in place to prevent it from happening again. He’s defended the special counsel investigation into Russia’s interference from Trump’s criticism.

But rarely does Ryan initiate the criticism of Trump on Russia. Often it comes after Trump tweets something, then Ryan is asked about it at a news conference. On Monday, Ryan felt compelled to speak out of his own volition, hours after Trump spoke.

Ryan seems most concerned that Trump showed absolute unwillingness to hold Russia accountable for trying to influence the outcome of a sovereign nation’s election. This is all happening four months before another election in the United States that has voting officials and politicians worried about potential Russian hacking.

 

 

As Ryan points out in his statement, even Trump’s own allies in Congress — who have been willing to go to great lengths to defend Trump and undermine the special counsel’s Russia investigation — don’t question that Russia interfered in the U.S. election.

When House Republicans ended their investigation into Russia’s interference in April, they said they didn’t think Trump helped, and they made the controversial judgment that Russia did not interfere specifically to help Trump. But even they didn’t and don’t dispute that Russia tried to intervene in the U.S. election. (Intelligence experts have concluded Russia did it specifically to help Trump win.)

The timing of Ryan’s statement is notable, too.

The last time Ryan confronted Trump in such a clear manner was last summer, when Trump blamed “both sides” for white-supremacy-led violence in Charlottesville. Ryan wrote a Facebook post saying in part: "[W]e all need to make clear there is no moral relativism when it comes to neo-Nazis,” bolding the part about moral relativism.

 

 

But Ryan’s implicit condemnation of Trump’s actions came nine days after the protests in Charlottesville and six days after Trump blamed both sides. In a CNN town hall that evening, Ryan made it clear he wouldn’t do more beyond the 500-word tsk-tsk Facebook post, which didn’t even mention Trump by name. At the time, Mitt Romney and other GOP leaders had said the president should apologize.

By contrast, Ryan’s much-quicker statement on Russia left no nuance on where he stands: in total disagreement with Trump’s performance.

As Ryan prepares to leave politics at the end of this year, he’s given us no reason to think he’ll become the next GOP anti-Trumper. As I wrote in April when Ryan announced his retirement:

 

 

Despite all the reasons for Ryan to be frustrated at Trump, criticizing the president any more than he has to is just not his style. Peacemaking rather than bomb-tossing has been Ryan’s strategy, and so far it’s worked for him.

 

 

That still appears to be the case. And against that backdrop, it’s notable that Ryan said what he said Monday about Trump and Putin.

It’s clear that Ryan not only thinks Trump got it wrong on his approach to Putin, but Ryan is worried that Trump won’t stand up to Russia going forward. Very worried.

 

WP 2018. 7. 15

 

 

 

Paul Davis Ryan Jr (1970~)

美 제54대 연방 하원의장

 

 

  "The president must appreciate that Russia is not our ally."  

 

 

 

 

 

"The United States must be focused on holding Russia accountable and putting an end to its vile attacks on our democracy."

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

POLITICS

Sen. John McCain says Trump gave ‘One of the most disgraceful performances by an American president’ at Putin summit

 

PUBLISHED MON, JUL 16 20182:50 PM EDTUPDATED TUE, JUL 17 201811:56 AM EDT

 

 

Dan Mangan@_DANMANGAN

 

 

KEY POINTS

• Sen. John McCain said President Donald Trump, appearing with Russian President Vladimir Putin at a press conference following their summit in Helsinki, had “abased himself ... abjectly before a tyrant.”
• “The damage inflicted by President Trump’s naivete, egotism, false equivalence, and sympathy for autocrats is difficult to calculate,” the Republican senator from Arizona said in a prepared statement.
• McCain’s blistering take came hours after the press conference, in which Trump refused to criticize Putin for what U.S. intelligence agencies have said was a concerted effort by Russians to interfere in the 2016 presidential election.

 

 

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin (R) and U.S. President Donald Trump attend a meeting in Helsinki, Finland July 16, 2018.

Alexei Nikolsky | Kremlin | Reuters

 

 

Sen. John McCain called President Donald Trump’s joint appearance with Russian leader Vladimir Putin on Tuesday “one of the most disgraceful performances by an American president in memory,” and said Trump had “abased himself ... abjectly before a tyrant.”

“The damage inflicted by President Trump’s naivete, egotism, false equivalence, and sympathy for autocrats is difficult to calculate,” said McCain, the Arizona Republican, in a prepared statement. “But it is clear that the summit in Helsinki was a tragic mistake.”

 

“President Trump proved not only unable, but unwilling to stand up to Putin,” said McCain, the 2008 Republican presidential nominee and current chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee.

“He and Putin seemed to be speaking from the same script as the president made a conscious choice to defend a tyrant against the fair questions of a free press, and to grant Putin an uncontested platform to spew propaganda and lies to the world,” McCain said.

The broadside was followed soon afterward by McCain’s former fellow senator, John Kerry, the ex-secretary of state, who in a tweet called Trump’s actions “indefensible,” “insanity,” and “appalling.”

Blistering take

McCain’s blistering take on Trump came hours after the president, appearing with Putin at a press conference after their summit in Helsinki, Finland, refused to criticize Putin for what U.S. intelligence agencies have said was a concerted effort by Russians to interfere in the 2016 presidential election.

Trump also had said that the United States and Russia are both to blame for the bad state of their current relationship with each other.

 

McCain’s broadside at the president — and the criticism of many others — was much harsher than a prepared statement issued by House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wisc.

“There is no question that Russia interfered in our election and continues attempts to undermine democracy here and around the world,” Ryan said. “That is not just the finding of the American intelligence community but also the House Committee on Intelligence. The president must appreciate that Russia is not our ally.”

“There is no moral equivalence between the United States and Russia, which remains hostile to our most basic values and ideals. The United States must be focused on holding Russia accountable and putting an end to its vile attacks on democracy.”

Here is McCain’s full statement:

 

“Today’s press conference in Helsinki was one of the most disgraceful performances by an American president in memory. The damage inflicted by President Trump’s naiveté, egotism, false equivalence, and sympathy for autocrats is difficult to calculate. But it is clear that the summit in Helsinki was a tragic mistake.

President Trump proved not only unable, but unwilling to stand up to Putin. He and Putin seemed to be speaking from the same script as the president made a conscious choice to defend a tyrant against the fair questions of a free press, and to grant Putin an uncontested platform to spew propaganda and lies to the world.

It is tempting to describe the press conference as a pathetic rout – as an illustration of the perils of under-preparation and inexperience. But these were not the errant tweets of a novice politician. These were the deliberate choices of a president who seems determined to realize his delusions of a warm relationship with Putin’s regime without any regard for the true nature of his rule, his violent disregard for the sovereignty of his neighbors, his complicity in the slaughter of the Syrian people, his violation of international treaties, and his assault on democratic institutions throughout the world.

Coming close on the heels of President Trump’s bombastic and erratic conduct towards our closest friends and allies in Brussels and Britain, today’s press conference marks a recent low point in the history of the American Presidency. That the president was attended in Helsinki by a team of competent and patriotic advisors makes his blunders and capitulations all the more painful and inexplicable.

No prior president has ever abased himself more abjectly before a tyrant. Not only did President Trump fail to speak the truth about an adversary; but speaking for America to the world, our president failed to defend all that makes us who we are—a republic of free people dedicated to the cause of liberty at home and abroad. American presidents must be the champions of that cause if it is to succeed. Americans are waiting and hoping for President Trump to embrace that sacred responsibility. One can only hope they are not waiting totally in vain.”

 

 

Here is Kerry’s statement on Trump:

 

 

CNBC 2018. 7. 16

 

 

 

John McCain (1936~)

美 상원의원

 

 

"Today's press conference in Helsinki was one of the most disgraceful performances by an American president in memory."

 

 

 

 

 

John O. Brennan (1955~)

美 중앙정보국 (CIA) 국장 (2013~2017)

 

 

Donald Trump's press conference performance in Helsinki rises to & exceeds the threshold of "high crimes & misdemeanors." It was nothing short of treasonous. Not only were Trump's comments imbecilic, he is wholly in the pocket of Putin. Republican Patriots ; Where are you???

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. NEWS JULY 18, 20188:26 AMUPDATED 4 YEARS AGO

Majority of Americans think Trump mishandling Russia: Reuters/Ipsos poll

 

By Damon Darlin, Chris Kahn

 

 

(Reuters) - More than half of Americans disapprove of the way U.S. President Donald Trump is handling relations with Russia, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted after his controversial summit and joint news conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

 

 

U.S. President Donald Trump and Russia's President Vladimir Putin shake hands during a joint news conference after their meeting in Helsinki, Finland, July 16, 2018. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

 

 

However, Trump’s performance at the Helsinki summit, where Trump refused to blame the Russian leader for meddling in the 2016 U.S. election and cast doubt on the findings of U.S. intelligence agencies, did not seem to have an impact on his overall approval rating.

Forty-two percent of registered voters said they approved of Trump’s performance in office in the latest opinion poll, compared with a daily average of between 40 and 44 percent so far in July.

The poll found that 55 percent of registered voters disapproved while 37 percent approved of his handling of relations with Russia.

Among Republicans, 71 percent approved of his handling of Russia compared to 14 percent of Democrats.

Trump still enjoys broad support among Republican voters despite criticism from party leaders about his words and actions while standing alongside the Russian leader answering questions from reporters, the poll results showed.

 

Trump surprised even his supporters when he praised the Russian leader during the news conference for his “strong and powerful” denial of meddling.

On Tuesday, Trump attempted to calm the political storm following his remarks, saying he misspoke at the news conference and had full confidence in U.S. agencies. But he appeared to veer from his script to add: “It could be other people also - there’s a lot of people out there,” he said.

A majority of registered voters, 59 percent, agree with the conclusions of U.S. intelligence agencies that Russia attempted to influence the U.S. election, the Reuters/Ipsos poll found. But only 32 percent of Republicans think that is true compared to 84 percent of Democrats.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll also revealed a distinct split among Republican and Democratic voters over whether Russia should be considered an adversary of the United States.

Overall, 38 percent of registered voters agreed that Russia is an enemy of the United States. About the same percent considered Russia “a competitor” while 8 percent said it was “a friend.”

 

However, half the Democrats said it was an enemy while only about one in three Republicans considered it so.

Forty percent of Democrats described Russia as an imminent threat while only 14 percent of Republicans agreed.

Overall, 27 percent of registered voters considered Russia an imminent threat. Only North Korea got a higher response on that question, 31 percent.

The poll also asked Americans whether they think authorities will find evidence of an illegal relationship between the Trump administration and Russia. A slim majority, 51 percent, said it was likely, while 77 percent of Democrats and 19 percent of Republicans did.

The same general split was true when asked if Trump or someone from his campaign worked with Russia to influence the 2016 election. Overall, 52 percent of registered voters agreed. But 81 percent of Democrats said that was true versus 19 percent of Republicans.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll gathered responses from 1,011 registered voters throughout the United States, including 453 Republicans and 399 Democrats. The poll has a credibility interval, a measure of precision, of 4 percentage points.

 

 

reuters 2018. 7. 18

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Case for Offshore Balancing

A Superior U.S. Grand Strategy

By John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt

July/August 2016

 

 

The amphibious assault ship USS Iwo Jima on the Hudson River in New York, May 2011.

Shannon Stapleton / REUTERS

 

 

 

For the first time in recent memory, large numbers of Americans are openly questioning their country’s grand strategy. An April 2016 Pew poll found that 57 percent of Americans agree that the United States should “deal with its own problems and let others deal with theirs the best they can.”

On the campaign trail, both the Democrat Bernie Sanders and the Republican Donald Trump found receptive audiences whenever they questioned the United States’ penchant for promoting democracy, subsidizing allies’ defense, and intervening militarily—leaving only the likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton to defend the status quo.

Americans’ distaste for the prevailing

 

  러시아는 독일을 건드릴 수 있을 만큼 강하지 못하고  

  독일은 러시아에게 정복당할 만큼 약하지 않다  

 

 

July / August 2016 | Foreign Affairs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OPINION | GLOBAL VIEW

 

Is Helsinki Trump’s Iran Deal?

The president may be indulging Russia as his predecessor did the Islamic Republic.

 

 

 

President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki, July 16.

PHOTO: HEIKKI SAUKKOMAA/LEHTIKUVA HANDO/EPA/SHUTTERSTOCK

 

 

 

By Walter Russell Mead

July 16, 2018 6:04 pm ET

 

 

 

Rarely has an American president been as isolated on foreign policy as President Trump is today. The Senate voted 97-2 to support the North Atlantic Treaty Organization last week, even as Mr. Trump belittled NATO and its principal members. Meanwhile, both the Justice Department and the director of national intelligence are sounding the alarm about the Russian leader Mr. Trump appears to be trying to recruit as an American ally. The president’s policy of reconciliation with Russia at the expense of NATO has even less support in Washington than President Obama’s policy of breaking with Middle East allies to attempt a reconciliation with Iran.

Among the president’s remarkable assumptions about Vladimir Putin’s Russia: that it can be induced to cooperate with the U.S. on a wide range of security issues, including Syria and Iran; and that it can replace Germany as America’s principal Eurasian partner—or, if not, the U.S. can use the threat of a Russian alliance to extract better terms from Germany and the European Union. The president is confident that he possesses the bargaining ability and diplomatic talent to manage the complex negotiations involved.

 

2018. 7. 16 WSJ

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mr. Obama's policy in particular bore similarities to Mr. Trump's. Both men held Washington's foreign-policy establishment ("the blob" or "the deep state") in contempt. Both came to the job with a belief that their unique life stories and personal qualities would enable them to transform global politics in a historic way.

 

 

 

 

 

 

What differentiates Mr. Trump from Mr. Obama most sharply is his approach to Europe. Mr. Obama saw Europe as a rich and generally well-intentioned part of the would that punches well below its weight in would affairs. Mr. Trump's view has been profoundly influenced by hard-core Brexiteers like Nigel Farage and anti-Islamist campaigners who see in the EU a mix of feckless in defending Western values and ruthlessness in promoting its own bureaucratic power.

 

 

 

 

 

 

And Mr. Trump's concern that "excessive" levels of migrants from Ialamic countries threaten the social cohesion of Western societies tallies with the views of politicians in countries across Europe who resent German power and fear the imposition of post-Christian, postnationalist values through the EU. 트럼프는 과다한 이슬람의 유입은 서구 사회의 사회적 일체감을 위협하고 있으며 독일의 힘에 분노하고 탈 기독교, 탈 민족주의적 가치가 유럽 전체에 확산 되는 것을 우려하고 있다.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Strange Death of Europe     : Immigration, Identity, Islam (2017, 5)                                                                  by Douglas Murray

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Trump Phenomenon And The Future Of Us Foreign Policy (2016.8)                                                                     by Daniel Quinn Mills, Steven Rosefielde

 

 

 

1. 다극 세계가 되었음을 인정하라. Globalization, liberalization을 통한 미국의 패권을 추구하지 말라.

The Trump Phenomenon And The Future Of Us Foreign Policy (2016.8)                                                                     by Daniel Quinn Mills, Steven Rosefielde

 

 

 

 

Liberal Internationalism

 

 

 

 

2. 국내 복지를 극대화 시키는 외교정책을 추구하라

 

 

 

 

3. Seek a Cold Peace with Russia, rather than the second Cold War which is now being decrided by many observers.

 

 

 

9. Permit EU to evolve in whatever direction works out-even if it falls apart

 

 

 

 

EU is an increasingly uncertain ally, (p.33)

9. Permit EU to evolve in whatever direction works out-even if it falls apart

 

 

 

 

 

 

Implosion   : The End of Russia and What It Means for America (2013)                                                                                                     by Ilan Berman

 

 

 

 

  1. 인구통계학적 재앙        

 

 

 

1년에 50만명씩 감소 (사망 혹은 해외 이주)

 

 

 

2050년까지 인구의 1/4 감소 전망

 

 

 

2080년에 인구 5,200만 명 국가

 

 

 

인구와 평균 수명이 모두 줄고 있다

 

 

 

평균수명 : 약 60세

Yemen, Botswana, Madagascar 수준

 

 

 

  2. 인종 종교 갈등        

 

 

 

  3. 중국과의 접경        

 

 

 

  4. 경제 문제        

 

 

 

 

BRICS (브릭스)

브라질(Brazil) · 러시아(Russia) · 인도(India) · 중화인민공화국(China)을 통칭하는 말로,

골드드만삭스가 처음으로 쓰기 시작했다. 이들은 2002년 상호 무역과 협력 조약을 맺었다.

2010년 12월 24일 남아프리카 공화국(South Africa)이 브릭스의 5번째 정규 회원이 됨으로써

브릭스(BRICS)로 통칭하게 되었다.

골드만삭스의 경제학자 짐 오닐(Jim O'Neil)은 네 나라가

2050년에 세계 경제를 주도하는 가장 강력한 나라가 될 잠재력이 있다는 설을 발표했다.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Russia's Dead End     : An Insider's Testimony from Gorbachev to Putin (2017)                                                                                            by Andrei A. Kovalev / Peter Reddaway

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

"We should join Russia in efforts to contain China"

 

미국에게 대단히 중요한 지역인

아시아에 대한 접근성을 확보하기 위해,

그리고 경쟁국을 제어하기 위해,

중국을 봉쇄할 것

 

 

 

 

  The Economist (November 22nd 2014)